Oliver, why are you doing this?
Why are you writing this incredibly foolish column? Why are you making bold and uncompromising predictions for seemingly no reason, demanding the wrath of the entire state of Indiana and of the internet? We ask again, why must you do this? Why must you tempt the armies of fate to march on your soul like a Greek heroine drowning in the River Styx?
Because sometimes in life, we are called to do something. And right now, I am called to say that the Boston Celtics are going to sweep the Indiana Pacers.
Sometimes we have a responsibility to the world. We must point to the bleachers like Babe Ruth calling his shot, declaring that our faith in our team and our knowledge of ball will carry us forward on a chariot of gold. We must dig deep within ourselves and find what it is we truly believe, and then loudly proclaim it to the world—no matter the consequences—because that is what it means to be free.
And sometimes, we have a responsibility to ourselves. We hear the beckoning of fame and glory at the top of the mountain. Though the road may be perilous, the spoils of correctly predicting that the Celtics will sweep the Pacers shimmer like diamonds. The promise of victory laps, ego trips, and a place in the pantheon of correct NBA Playoffs predictions for the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals loom too large not to push forward.
And so, I shall.
The sweep comes down to a two-pronged theory: matchup and religious fanaticism.
The Pacers are not a bad team, but they are not good either. They finished a single tiebreaker over the Philadelphia 76ers out of the Play-In with a pedestrian 47-35 record, though their roster was hardly at full strength until the acquisition of Pascal Siakam at the trade deadline and the slow recuperation of Tyrese Haliburton from a hamstring injury that he, somewhat ironically, suffered against the Celtics.
The narrative in and around Boston this past week has been about how the Celtics have not been remotely challenged in their so-far dominant, 8-2 playoff run to the Eastern Conference Finals, and that’s true. The Miami Heat didn’t have Jimmy Butler or Terry Rozier, and the Cleveland Cavaliers were without Donovan Mitchell for Games 4 and 5 and Jarrett Allen for the entire second round. That is, objectively, not very challenging.
The Pacers have been challenged more, but that’s only because they’re a worse team. Had the Celtics rolled through the injury-obliterated Milwaukee Bucks and the we’re-literally-out-of-dudes New York Knicks in the first two rounds, we would be having the exact same conversations.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25457766/2125675243.jpg "The Celtics are going to sweep the Pacers (1)")
Indiana played very well this season on the backs of a resurgent Pascal Siakam, who seems more poised and assertive than ever after his departure from a Toronto Raptors team that simply could not wait to start tanking. Before his injury, Tyrese Haliburton looked like a legitimate MVP candidate, though an all-time-terrible Game 5 against the Knicks exemplified his relative spottiness since.
The one thing the Pacers are is fast, though it’s closer to someone driving a car down a drag strip at 160 miles per hour with a cinderblock on the accelerator and screaming “WOOOO” than a well-oiled F1 racer making pin-perfect turns at high speeds. Aaron Nesmith plays like he has a hyperdrive, and revenge games against the Celtics are basically like spitting gasoline directly on the engine like that dude in Mad Max: Fury Road.
They used that speed to finish off the Knicks, once head coach Rick Carlisle reportedly lit into his team after their Game 5 disasterclass. Presumably, he implored them to simply run past the Knicks off of rebounds or even made baskets, since those guys were so tired they weren’t even running on fumes anymore; they were just pushing the car from the back.
But that speed ironically makes them an excellent matchup for the Celtics, since Boston’s kryptonite is methodical, cerebral teams that try to pick them apart and out-execute them in tight spots, such as the 2022 Golden State Warriors, who had Stephen Curry giving Al Horford and Robert Williams III nightmares in drop coverage. The Denver Nuggets did similar picking-apart this year in their two meetings, as have the Heat in various successful and unsuccessful playoff series over the past few years.
The secret to beating the Celtics is slowing them down, since they have a tendency to make the worst decision imaginable when the game starts getting drowned in molasses, such as a side step three with 17 seconds on the shot clock or endless isolation possessions while the rest of the team just stands around.
But if other teams want to run? That’s when the Celtics get over themselves and have played some of their best basketball of the year, both in wins and losses. The January 3 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder was weirdly an encouraging game for Boston, as it saw them get really good shots in a fast-paced environment and showed Jayson Tatum’s true defensive upside against Shai-Gilgeous Alexander.
One week later, the Celtics beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in an overtime barn burner, which saw them execute a heroic comeback that was arguably spurred by the Timberwolves’ inability to chill the hell out. A few timely turnovers and some quick-feet execution saw the Celtics produce maybe their best win all year. And it was super-fast paced.
Indiana is going to play the way they have to: with overwhelming speed. They beat the Knicks with unbelievably potent shooting numbers and by running past a team that could not keep up with them athletically. But they haven’t played anything close to the Celtics, and are about to find out why that’s not going to work.
The Pacers would have been annihilated by the Bucks with a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo, as they don’t even have the idea of a defender large enough to handle him. Instead, they got to throw Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell at Damian Lillard, yet still couldn’t find a way to stop Khris Middleton from shooting over all of their heads. Against New York, they played a team whose largest player by far was Isaiah Hartenstein, and all their perimeter players were 6’5” on a good day or shorter.
In short—pun intended—they are not prepared for the combination of size and athleticism that the Celtics are about to hit them with. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are not small by any definition—they both stand about 6’5”—yet are the shortest dudes the Celtics will throw out in clutch moments. Haliburton is a straight-up bad defender, and while Nembhard and Nesmith are physical, it’s not like they’re elite-level stoppers.
McConnell is an excellent defender, but even if he can somehow erase his four-inch height disparity against the two guards, he has no chance against the overwhelming size of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown unless he can strip the ball on every single drive to the basket. Siakam will have to take that assignment, and he’s both never been a truly inspiring defender nor can he guard two guys.
The Pacers do not have the players to match up with the Celtics, and Boston conversely has every option in the world to throw at them. They’re young and healthy enough to run with them and simply have better horses to do it. Indiana would have to get criminally hot to steal even one game, and obviously that may happen. But that forgets prong two of the plan: fanaticism.
I am sick of the Celtics not sweeping other teams. Over 21-percent of all playoff series have ended in a sweep, yet this is now eight straight series without one, dating all the way back to the first round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets in 2022. I’m not usually a huge stathead, but the Celtics’ record, net rating, offensive rating and home/road splits this year compute to… uh (carry the four, how do you do long division again?)… probably at least one sweep during this playoff run, and this may be their last chance to snag one.
I’m not saying the Celtics have to, but man would it be nice to just smoke a team one of these days. Why do we always need the obligatory “oh look, Team X had the greatest shooting performance in team history” game in every series? Do we really have to go round and round with wake-up-calls, the offense getting stuck in the mud, or a series of maddening post-game interviews about “recommitting to defense” or “we’re not necessarily a superteam, but people expect us to win every game?”
Yeah, we do. Because every game, you’re the Boston Celtics and the other team is not. You are stacked to the nines with one of the greatest lineups in NBA history having been graced with a six-lane comfort cruise through the Eastern Conference. I don’t know about everyone else’s calculations, but I refuse to believe the Celtics cannot just pull out a broomstick and sweep this team.
After they lost Game 2 to the Cavaliers, I wrote probably the angriest column I’ve ever put out into the world, demanding this team drop the entitlement and prove they’re above the same mistakes that have sunk this ship in the past. In the spirit of mystical manifestation, this piece can be a pre-challenge to rise to the occasion. Sweep the Pacers! Do it! You are more than capable!
I won’t have to get angry about the same mistakes since they won’t happen. Indiana will get to go home happy with their future and thrilled that they even made it to the conference finals in the first place, and the Celtics will advance to the NBA Finals with a 12-2 playoff record.
